Another Word For It Patrick Durusau on Topic Maps and Semantic Diversity

March 6, 2015

Statistical Thinking?

Filed under: Government,Politics — Patrick Durusau @ 11:20 am

Quote: Wells/Wilks on Statistical Thinking

From the webpage:

“Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write!”

Quote from the presidential address in 1951 of mathematical statistician Samuel S. Wilks (1906 – 1964) to the American Statistical Association found in JASA,Vol. 46, No. 253., pp. 1-18. Wilks was paraphrasing Herbert G. Wells (1866 – 1946) from his book Mankind in the Making. The full H.G. Wells quote reads:

“The great body of physical science, a great deal of the essential fact of financial science, and endless social and political problems are only accessible and only thinkable to those who have had a sound training in mathematical analysis, and the time may not be very remote when it will be understood that for complete initiation as an efficient citizen of one of the new great complex worldwide States that are now developing, it is as necessary to be able to compute, to think in averages and maxima and minima, as it is now to be able to read and write.”

Statistical thinking would enable most voters make more informed choices. However, given the lack of statistical thinking skills in elected and appointed leaders, it seems unlikely that statistical thinking is widespread among voters.

For example:

Clapper: The Attacks We Didn’t Prevent In The Past Can’t Be Prevented In The Future If Section 215 Is Allowed To Die by Tim Cushing..

From the post:

Over a decade has passed since the 9/11 attacks, and the intelligence community still won’t let the attack it didn’t prevent be laid to rest. It is exhumed over and over again — its tattered remains waved in front of legislators and the public, accompanied by shouts of, “YOU SEE THIS?!? THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE DON’T GET OUR WAY!”

It’s grotesque and ghastly and — quite frankly — more than a little tiresome. The NSA’s Section 215 program is set to expire on June 1st and James Clapper is making statements in its defense — statements that read like someone attempting to sound more disappointed than angry. But this is James Clapper speaking, and all prior evidence points to him being unwilling to make any concessions on the domestic surveillance front.

See Tim’s article for quotes from Clapper and others, I just can’t bear to repeat their nonsense today. There is no evidence, none, that phone surveillance has stopped any attacks, yet Clapper keeps waving the fear flag to continue the program.

That is not only a failure of reasoning, but a failure of statistical thinking as well. If the incidence of terrorist attacks that have been stopped by phone surveillance is zero, how much of a justification is there for phone surveillance? I realize that is close to being a math question but give it a try. 😉 Most of the elected officials in the United States will get the answer wrong.

I first saw this in a tweet by Kirk Borne.

I appreciate Kirk pitching for the traditional model of an informed and intelligent citizenry that is in control of its government but I doubt that was ever more than a myth. It certainly isn’t true today.

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