We’re Not Very Good Statisticians by Steve Miller.
From the post:
I’ve received several emails/comments about my recent series of blogs on Duncan Watts’ interesting book “Everything is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer — How Common Sense Fails Us.” Watts’ thesis is that the common sense that generally guides us well for life’s simple, mundane tasks often fails miserably when decisions get more complicated.
Three of the respondents suggested I take a look at “Thinking Fast and Slow,” by psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who along with the late economist Amos Tversky, was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for “seminal work in psychology that challenged the rational model of judgment and decision making.”
Steve’s post and the ones to follow are worth a close read.
When data, statistical or otherwise, agrees with me, I take that as a sign to evaluate it very carefully. Your mileage may vary.