Do NSA’s Bulk Surveillance Programs Stop Terrorists? by Peter Bergen, David Sterman, Emily Schneider, Bailey Cahall, New America Foundation.
From the summary of the full report:
However, our review of the government’s claims about the role that NSA “bulk” surveillance of phone and email communications records has had in keeping the United States safe from terrorism shows that these claims are overblown and even misleading. An in-depth analysis of 225 individuals recruited by al-Qaeda or a like-minded group or inspired by al-Qaeda’s ideology, and charged in the United States with an act of terrorism since 9/11, demonstrates that traditional investigative methods, such as the use of informants, tips from local communities, and targeted intelligence operations, provided the initial impetus for investigations in the majority of cases, while the contribution of NSA’s bulk surveillance programs to these cases was minimal. Indeed, the controversial bulk collection of American telephone metadata, which includes the telephone numbers that originate and receive calls, as well as the time and date of those calls but not their content, under Section 215 of the USA PATRIOT Act, appears to have played an identifiable role in initiating, at most, 1.8 percent of these cases. NSA programs involving the surveillance of non-U.S. persons outside of the United States under Section 702 of the FISA Amendments Act played a role in 4.4 percent of the terrorism cases we examined, and NSA surveillance under an unidentified authority played a role in 1.3 percent of the cases we examined.
Looking at the actual cases, it turns out that traditional law enforcement is the most effective means of finding terrorists. By a large margin.
Out of 225 cases (including murders by the U.S. overseas), only 17 of them were initiated by the NSA. Or 7.7%.
Think of it this way, would you prefer your car to start 92 times out of 100 or only 8 times out of 100?
Now add in that you are spending $billions for that 8 times out of 100.
Does that give you a new perspective on funding the NSA?